Political Science 138:
Quantitative Reasoning in Political Science

Homework Assignment 4:  Federal Budget Deficits  (Alternative: Federal Debt)   

Prepare a table or chart showing the change in the Federal budget surplus (or deficit) for each presidential administration since Truman's.   Use either deficit in current dollars (Table 1.1, column D) or the % of GDP data (Table 1.2, column E).   Prepare a 250-word summary of your findings on the record of Democratic and Republican presidents on budget deficits. 

• Table 1.1 — Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2011

• Table 1.2 — Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) as Percentages of GDP: 1930 — 2011
  
   

see also: Table 1.3 — Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars, Constant (FY 2000) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2011

Notes:

To do this you will have to find the terms of office for each US president (Start Truman in FY1946, combine Kennedy/Johnson and Nixon/Ford) and the budget they were responsible for.  You will also have to do a little research on just what the budget deficit is (for example: how it differs from the National debt).

To determine which years' budgets each president is responsible for: 

q    President Reagan was elected in 1980, and took office in January 1981.  His first budget was the FY 1982 (the fiscal year started October 1, 1981).  His last budget was FY1989.

q    To calculate the change in the budget deficit during his term of office, subtract the FY1981 budget deficit from the FY 1989 deficit. 

In 1977 the beginning date of the budget year was changed from June 1, to October 1.  Leaving a TQ – transitional quarter budget period.

Note: The data FY2003 and the following years are just estimates (made when Bush proposed his FY 2004 budget in January of 2003.  Since the FY2003 is now over, you may substitute the official data for that year.  See this story for the data.

Alternative Assignment.

Prepare a table or chart showing the change in the Gross Federal Debt for each presidential administration since Truman's.   Use either debt in current dollars (Table 7.1, column D) or the % of GDP data (Table 7.1, column G).   Prepare a 250-word summary of your findings on the record of Democratic and Republican presidents on reducing or increasing the Federal Debt.

Table 7.1 — Federal Debt at the End of Year: 1940–2011

To determine which years' budget each president is responsible for: 

q    President Reagan was elected in 1980, and took office in January 1981.  His first budget was the FY 1982 (the fiscal year started October 1, 1981).  His last budget was FY1989.  Calculate the change in the debt from FY1981 to FY 1989.

q    To calculate the change in the debt during his term of office, subtract the FY1981 budget deficit from the FY 1989 deficit.  (or calculate the percentage change).

q    Be sure to answer this question: On average how much has the federal debt increased under Republican and Democratic administrations