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2/2/04: A Deficit of Wisdom?

DiscussionThe president submits his budget proposal to the Congress in February for the fiscal year that will begin on October 1st.  Thus, the FY 2005 budget proposal was submitted on February 2, 2004.

The first data point on each of the trendlines is the actual budget surplus of deficit for the preceding year.  The second data point is the estimated surplus for the current year and the remaining 5 data points are estimates for future years.

Thus, President Bush's FY 2002 budget proposal estimated that the FY 2004 would see a 262 billion dollar surplus.  In his 2003 budget, FY 2004 was forecast to have a $14 billion deficit.  His most recent budget proposal estimates that the FY 2004 deficit will be $521 billion (but even this estimate does not include at least $50 billion for the war in Irag and Afghanistan).

My prediction: After his re-election, President Bush will propose a FY 2005 deficit in excess of $600 billion.

Data sources: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/about.html and http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/