The Irish Potato Famine - Steps

The general steps for System Dynamics modeling are:

Conceptualization

Identify basic stocks, flows, auxillary variables,& feedback loopsOperational View

Refine Stocks, Flows, and Feedback Loops

Maintain unit consistency
Maintain conservation of units

Analyze Feedback Loops (reinforcing or balancing?)
Check for operational accuracy

Develop equations
Estimate parameters and constants
Determine starting conditions

Compare behavior from model to reference behavior
Run the model with different values of the estimated parameters and constants

Assignment:

You will produce two models. The first is created by following all steps above through the first task in "Running the Model" (i.e. "Compare behavior from model to reference behavior"). This model is used to test the hypothesis that emigration was effectively zero before 1847 and after 1854. (use the IF THEN ELSE function with TIME as a Shadow Variable).

When the results of the first model are compared to historical data, you will see that the model does not recreate actual population behavior after 1854. You will then carry out the last two tasks in the model building process and modify the model to better match the historical data. Change the emigration to make the behavior of the model more consistent with history (use the Table LOOKUP function with TIME as a Shadow Variable). Find an amount of average annual emigration after 1854 that will give a Population BOT consistent with history. Use the binary search pattern to find that value. (What are possible high and low values for you to begin with?)

Document the project binary search steps in a Word document. Black board submit your Word document and final model.