The Irish Potato Famine - Data

Run the model from 1791 to 1901 with a step of one year (use the population 
in 1791 as the initial value).

   Population of Ireland (to be used in the Actual Population auxiliary variable)

   1791     4,750,000
   1796     5,000,000
   1801     5,300,000
   1806     5,600,000
   1811     6,000,000
   1816     6,400,000
   1821     6,800,000
   1826     7,300,000
   1831     7,800,000
   1836     8,000,000
   1841     8,200,000
   1846     8,100,000
   1851     6,550,000
   1856     6,200,000
   1861     5,800,000
   1866     5,600,000
   1871     5,400,000
   1876     5,300,000
   1881     5,200,000
   1886     5,000,000
   1891     4,700,000
   1896     4,600,000
   1901     4,460,000


To create the model
Birth Rate: (think about what your need to do in order to use two values for birth rate dependent on the time)
   pre 1847 = 41 per 1000 population
   1847 on  = 33 per 1000 population

Deaths: (again two values)
   normal death rate  =  30 per 1000 population
   Deaths due to famine = 1.5 million in 1846

Emigration: (remember a lookup table must account for all the times (or range of times) in the model)
   before 1847 = 0
   1847 to 1854 = 200,000 per year
   after 1854  =  0  (according to the historians--this will be changed later 
   to find a value that matchs actual behavior) 
   

If this model is not consistent with history, modify the emigration to make it more consistent (use the Table LOOKUP function with TIME as a Shadow Variable). Find an amount of average annual emigration after 1854 that will give a Population BOTG consistent with history. Use the binary search pattern to find that value. (What are possible high and low values for you to begin with?)